🔊 Will Newcastle's streak of misfortune come to an end in their Premier League third-round clash with Leeds? The Magpies have been winless since the penultimate match of last season. Eddie Howe has yet to turn things around, both in pre-season and at the start of this campaign. Daniel Farke's Leeds have also stumbled since their return to the English top flight, failing to defeat even a lower-league team in the cup. Which team's losing streak will be broken on Saturday at Elland Road? Will Newcastle's players be affected by recent matches where victory slipped away in the dying minutes? We'll tackle these and other intriguing questions in our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Since Newcastle returned to the Premier League in 2017, they have managed to maintain their top-flight status. Leeds, on the other hand, have been oscillating between the Championship and the English elite since the 2021/22 season. Despite this, the two teams have faced each other five times during this period, and their head-to-head record is remarkably balanced: one win each and three draws. The aggregate scoreline also reflects this parity, standing at 5-5.

Leeds United Team Overview

⚪ Leeds' dominance over Everton in the Premier League's opening round was nowhere to be seen when they visited the Emirates. Daniel Farke's side tried to resist the hosts for the first 20 minutes, with a dangerous corner shot from defender Pascal Struijk, but soon after, they found themselves pinned back. The "Peacocks" were outplayed across the board: 32% to 68% in possession, 3 to 18 in shots. However, it wasn't a major setback since they had already secured points against Everton. The situation worsened with Leeds' exit from the English League Cup at the hands of Sheffield Wednesday (1-1 in regular time, 0-3 on penalties). Yet, this debacle is understandable—Farke didn't field any of the starters from the Arsenal match.

🏆 In the cup match, four summer signings made their debut in Leeds' starting lineup: Noah Okafor, Sean Longstaff, Sebastian Bornauw, and Jaka Bijol. Another newcomer, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, came on in the 58th minute but was only noted for missing a penalty in the shootout. These lackluster performances from the new arrivals prompted the management to urgently hit the market before the transfer window closed. Consequently, Leeds announced the signing of right-back James Justin from Leicester. Rumors also link Timo Werner and Kalvin Phillips with the club.

Newcastle United Team Overview

⚫ The future participants of the Champions League group stage have been unable to secure a win in their last 10 matches across all competitions. It seems like Eddie Howe's team is plagued by misfortune: against Aston Villa, the Magpies failed to convert any of their 16 shots, and against Liverpool, despite being down a player, they nearly salvaged the match but conceded in stoppage time. However, their performance against the Reds deserves special respect—after losing one of their key creative players, the team responded with immense determination and intensity. At one point, it seemed Newcastle might overcome their opponents even with ten men, but fate was merciless (2-3).

⚪ In Newcastle's lineup, with Isak absent, Anthony Gordon has been particularly active in the forward position. Although he hasn't yet recorded any goals or assists this season, his dribbling runs and shots from various angles constantly trouble opponents. Bruno Guimarães stood out against Liverpool, completely overpowering Merseyside's Milos Kerkez on the flank. Additionally, two newcomers, Jacob Ramsey and Malik Thiaw, made their debuts towards the end of the match.

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Leeds United

📝 Following a disappointing performance against Sheffield Wednesday in the cup, Leeds management has questioned the quality of their signings in midfield and the final third. They believe the team lacks creativity and may turn to Manchester City, who are open to parting ways with Kalvin Phillips. The "Citizens" are considering terminating Phillips' contract, which could see the midfielder return to Leeds as a free agent in the coming days. He originally moved to Manchester in 2022 for €49 million.

❌ At the start of the season, Leeds have lost Ethan Ampadu and Ao Tanaka from their lineup. Both players have suffered similar knee injuries and are expected to be sidelined at least until after the international break.

Newcastle United

🎙 Anthony Gordon has apologized for the foul on Virgil van Dijk: "I want to sincerely apologize to my teammates and the fans. There was no malice intended—I was just trying to inject some energy into the game, but I mistimed the tackle. I would never intentionally go in for such a challenge. We spoke after the match, and van Dijk understands. But most importantly, I'm proud of the time I spent on the pitch and our performance today. The atmosphere at St James' Park is what makes this stadium special. I love everything our club stands for, especially now. I will come back stronger—as I always do after every challenge."

❌ Newcastle couldn't finish the match against Liverpool with three players. Joelinton pulled his groin, and Fabian Schär suffered a concussion in one of the clashes—both players will miss the game against Leeds. Sandro Tonali was also forced off; according to Eddie Howe, he couldn't move his arm after the match, but he might play on Saturday if the shoulder injury isn't too serious. The length of Anthony Gordon's suspension due to the red card hasn't been announced yet, but he will definitely miss Newcastle's third-round fixture.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Peter Bankes. Over the past two rounds, he has issued 8 yellow cards. His stats from last season in the Premier League show a similar trend, averaging 3.7 yellow cards over 20 matches. As for the teams themselves, their head-to-head encounters have been anything but gentle, with an average of 6 yellow cards in their last 4 meetings. Both clubs are dealing with several personnel losses that could have added creativity to their play. Therefore, we believe that the finesse in play might give way to intense battles. This could lead to a total yellow cards count exceeding 4.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Here we also point out the absence of key playmakers for Newcastle. Yes, the Magpies managed to score twice against Liverpool, but that seemed more like an exception. It’s unlikely Eddie Howe will want to repeat a scenario where his players are down a man—it’s uncertain if it would galvanize them again. Additionally, looking at their head-to-head stats, the last 5 Premier League meetings between these teams averaged 2 goals per game. If the match turns out to be open, the level of execution might falter. Betting on total goals under 3 seems most plausible.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Remember Newcastle's towering Scandinavian? The 191cm tall William Osula made his presence felt by equalizing against Liverpool. While it wasn’t a header, his height could be advantageous for crosses from the wings and corners in the absence of Anthony Gordon. Among Leeds' five forwards, only Joel Piroe is shorter than 185cm. Notably, the average number of corners in their last 5 head-to-head matches is quite high, reaching a significant 13.2. Considering all these factors, we suggest looking at total corners over 10.5.

Newcastle are the clear favorites according to the odds. It was surprising to see how much Daniel Farke's team struggled when faced with stronger opposition. Of course, we should consider that Leeds were up against Arsenal, a team consistently eyeing the title for several years now. However, let's not forget that Newcastle faced the reigning champions, and they did so with a depleted squad. Despite all the personnel challenges for the Magpies, expecting a high-scoring game would be unrealistic. Yet, we know Eddie Howe's squad is never short on character. A narrow victory for the visitors with a score of 1-0 seems a reasonable prediction here. Therefore, we back Newcastle to win with a handicap (0).