🔊 Can Pafos once again prove the doubters among bookmakers wrong? They've already laid the groundwork for the second leg of the Champions League qualification playoff—after their encounter in Belgrade, the Cypriots hold a 1-goal advantage. Although they won't be playing at their home stadium, Pafos have yet to taste defeat at the "Alphamega" in Limassol throughout their journey from the first round of playoffs. This also applies to their last five matches, where they've only conceded twice. Can Crvena Zvezda derail the hosts' plans for a historic entry into the Champions League? Let's dive into our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams faced off in their first head-to-head clash last week on August 19th in Belgrade. In the first leg of the Champions League playoff qualification, the visitors were statistically almost on par with Crvena, and on the scoreboard, they came out on top with a 2-1 victory.

Pafos Team Overview

🟡 The Cypriots have made it a habit to score early in their Champions League matches. While Dynamo Kyiv suffered in Limassol in the 2nd minute, Juan Carlos Carcedo's side raised the bar in Belgrade, finding the net just 37 seconds in — courtesy of Joao Correra, extending his scoring streak to three games. His powerful curling strike from outside the box left the Serbian defenders and goalkeeper helpless.

🔵 Pafos didn't sit back after this early lead; they continued to press forward. This pressure resulted in a penalty against Crvena Zvezda. Brazilian winger Bruno received a pass from Portuguese Pepe inside the box, and his attempt to center the ball struck a Crvena midfielder's hand. Pepe, the provider of the incisive pass, calmly converted the penalty, sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. The hosts' lone goal came six minutes later, also from a penalty — earned by Bruno, but this time in his own box. Cypriot goalkeeper Michail Neophytos saved the initial shot, yet the Serbian forward capitalized on the rebound.

🔝 Pafos' midfield and defense particularly shone. On the flank, full-back Joao Correra and playmaker Muamer Tankovic combined brilliantly — it was Tankovic's pass that set up the Cape Verdean wing-back's early goal. This goal marked a continuation of scoring runs for both players: Tankovic had assisted in the previous match against Dynamo Kyiv, while Correra had been involved in the last two games. The standout performer was undoubtedly Cypriot goalkeeper Michail Neophytos. His five crucial saves were instrumental in holding off Crvena Zvezda's attacks, earning him the man of the match honors.

Red Star Team Overview

🔴 After a shocking start with a goal conceded in the first minute, Vladan Milojević's team managed to seize control of the game but conceded again early in the second half. They quickly closed the gap, albeit with some flaws. In the 54th minute, following a corner kick, Serbian defender Veljko Milosavljević rose highest in the Pafos penalty area. The ball struck an opponent's hand after his header, and a VAR review resulted in a penalty being awarded.

⚪️ Stepping up to the spot was Bruno Duarte, who had come on as a substitute in the first half. The Brazilian's strike was straight at the goalkeeper, but the rebound fell kindly onto Duarte’s head. The forward managed to redirect it into the net off the crossbar, making it 1-2. Towards the end of the match, midfielder Aleksandar Katai had a chance to score but couldn't manage the tricky delivery. His header beat both the goalkeeper and the Cypriots' defender on the line but narrowly missed the post.

🔝 Among the Belgrade side, summer signing Xavi Babica stood out as their top performer— the former Toulouse winger played 87 minutes and received the highest rating in the team. Besides Bruno Duarte, who added creativity after coming on, Aleksandar Katai also made an impact as a substitute. The experienced Serbian midfielder has had a prolific career, scoring 145 goals in 320 top-flight games across Greece, Serbia, Spain, and the USA, and he continues his scoring form in the current Superliga season with 6 goals in 4 matches. Crvena Zvezda boasts a powerful midfield; alongside Katai, there's Mirko Ivanić, who also has over 100 career goals and boasts a 4+3 record in 5 matches this season.

Latest news

Pafos

🎙 Former assistant to Unai Emery and now head coach of Pafos, Juan Carlos Carcedo celebrated his birthday on the eve of the match against Crvena Zvezda. Despite the sensational victory, the Spanish tactician remained humble after the game: "We were a bit fortunate, as we scored early, which boosted our confidence in achieving our goal. We are very pleased with the result. It's a massive outcome. However, we need to remain humble and resilient to achieve what we desire," Carcedo stated.

❌ Pafos' star signing David Luiz remains out of the squad as he continues his recovery from a hip injury sustained in July. During the 17th minute of the match in Belgrade, Muamer Tankovic was forced off the field. The extent of the injury to the assist provider is still unknown, but the early substitution suggests he might miss the upcoming game.

Red Star

🎙 "We anticipated Pafos to play exactly as they did. They're an extremely dynamic team, utilizing rapid transitions. Their players are very strong, true athletes. We fell out of the game too quickly—starting a match like that, especially at this level, is unacceptable. We'll analyze the game, take some rest, and head to Limassol aiming for victory. We don't have another 90 minutes to be at our peak," commented Milojevic on the recent match.

❌ The Belgrade side will head to Cyprus with a full squad. Among the players of Crvena Zvezda, there are no injuries or suspensions. However, after coming off the bench in the Champions League qualifier against Lech, Marko Arnautovic hasn't been included in the squad for four consecutive games.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Crvena Red Star have doubled their opponent's total goals in matches involving them, with an average of 3.8 compared to 1.8 over the last 10 games. It's important to note that the Serbian league is less competitive, allowing Vladan Milojević's side to rack up impressive stats. Looking at goal-scoring by halves, both teams tend to be more productive in the second half—Pafos with 1.3 compared to 0.6, and Crvena with 2.1 against 1.7. In Limassol, given the narrow scoreline, we expect a cautious start from both sides, leading us to predict that the second half will be more productive than the first.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Before their first head-to-head clash, Crvena led in individual corner totals this season, averaging 7.25 compared to Pafos' 5.75. The territorial advantage for the Serbians in Belgrade translated into a corner dominance of 13 to 4. However, in the first two rounds of qualification, the Cypriots proved they could play assertively, especially at home. Against Maccabi Tel Aviv, they were only out-cornered by 2 (4:6), and they outperformed Dynamo Kyiv fourfold (8:2). It's clear that Crvena Zvezda will try to impose their game again, but Pafos will likely handle it better on home turf. Based on this, we predict that the upper limit for corners will be exceeded. Our bet: total corners over 9.5.

Bookmakers do not see Pafos as favorites, even in what is nominally a home match for them. The absence of one of their key attacking players could impact the Cypriots' creativity. However, Juan Carlos Corceda still has explosive starting phases in his arsenal, which the opponent might not be prepared for at the beginning of the match or during halftime. A potential goal in one of these periods could enable the hosts to focus on securing a result thereafter. The Serbians arrive with a full-strength squad and are likely to emphasize their creative forces: players like Duarte, Katai, and Ivanić could start and apply pressure from the first whistle. We anticipate chances for both sides, leading to a fair scoreline of 1-1 for such a match. Our main bet suggestion is – both teams to score (yes).