🔊 Will one of these teams secure their first victory in the current Premier League campaign? Brentford and Aston Villa have had a disappointing start to the EPL, falling short of their ambitions. For the Bees, who lost their key figure Thomas Frank, this scenario is somewhat understandable. However, Aston Villa, with their Champions League aspirations, cannot afford such setbacks. The match will take place at the Brentford Community Stadium in London, where the hosts haven't tasted victory against their upcoming opponents since 2022. Can the Red and Whites break their winless streak on August 23? Let's dive into our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams were promoted two years apart and have consistently faced each other in the Premier League since 2021. Over this period, they have played 8 matches: Aston Villa have emerged victorious 4 times, 3 matches ended in a draw, and Brentford claimed victory just once.

Brentford Team Overview

🐝 Under the guidance of their new manager Keith Andrews, who previously focused on set pieces in Thomas Frank's staff, the “Bees” managed to score just once at Nottingham's City Ground. Notably, this came from a controversial penalty in the second half, which did little to help the team after a disastrous first half (0-3). The goal from the spot was the last of the match, leaving mixed impressions of the visitors' performance. A look at the stats shows they were not outplayed by the overperforming hosts, as they scored their well-earned goal with 1.33 xG. However, Brentford certainly have room for improvement in their attacking play, as they managed only three shots on target throughout the match, with a significant portion of their expected goals influenced by the awarded penalty.

Aston Villa Team Overview

🦁 The Villans opened their campaign against Newcastle at their home ground in Birmingham, but they hardly played like hosts, especially in the first half. The Magpies overwhelmed the Lions with relentless pressing, barely allowing them past the halfway line—the shot count at halftime stood at 8-0 in favor of the visitors. In the second half, Unai Emery's side showed some life and created three chances, but attempts from Kamara, Watkins, and Malen were all saved by the keeper, amounting to just 0.32 expected goals. Birmingham's pressure culminated in a red card for Ezri Konsa in the 65th minute for a last-man foul on Anthony Gordon, who was through on goal. After that, Aston Villa retreated into a deep defensive shell and successfully thwarted Newcastle's efforts for the remainder of the game. The man-of-the-match award went to goalkeeper Marco Bizot, which speaks volumes. The summer signing from Brest stepped in for the suspended Emiliano Martinez and made three crucial saves, denying 1.4 expected goals.

Latest news

Brentford

📝 Amidst transfer rumors surrounding Yoane Wissa, who is refusing to play or even train with the club, Brentford have urgently brought in Dango Ouattara from Bournemouth. The signing of the winger from Burkina Faso set a record for the Bees, with a fee of €42.8 million. Despite reports of an injury, Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher made his debut for the club from the start. Another newcomer and former Red, Jordan Henderson, also made an appearance in the 69th minute.

❗ As Keith Andrews, in his new role as head coach, seeks ways to break down opponents without Bryan Mbeumo, another Brentford forward, Yoane Wissa, has deleted all his Instagram photos in which he is playing or training in the Bees' kit. To recap, Wissa has threatened not to play or train for the club unless they approve his protracted move to Newcastle. According to BBC reports, Brentford are not rushing into this decision: initially, the Bees valued the forward at £40 million, but now they are asking for £60 million.

❌ Vitaly Janelt continues his recovery from heel surgery. Reports of serious injuries to Caoimhín Kelleher and Kevin Schade proved premature, as both players featured in the opening match against Nottingham Forest. Midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard is also expected to return after missing the previous game due to the birth of his child.

Aston Villa

📝 As the transfer window closed, Aston Villa managed to cash in on their academy graduate Jacob Ramsey, who moved to Newcastle for €45.2 million. In addition, Leon Bailey helped lighten the wage bill as he joined Roma on loan with an option to buy. These deals allowed the Villans to recoup their investment in Evann Guessand from Nice and even come out ahead financially. Interestingly, the African forward has yet to make an appearance for the Birmingham side, but former Brest goalkeeper Marco Bizot made a stunning debut.

❗ Despite the goalless draw against Newcastle, the atmosphere at Villa Park was electric. Midway through the second half, the stadium erupted with chants against the Premier League and its financial regulations. Villa fans are frustrated that the club has to sell key players and trim the squad due to restrictions imposed by both UEFA and the league. Newcastle supporters echoed these sentiments, as their club has been unable to sign any first-team players for three consecutive transfer windows due to the rules.

❌ In their upcoming match, Villa will be without Ezri Konsa and Ross Barkley. Konsa's red card was evident in the recent game against Newcastle, while Barkley sustained an injury early in preseason. Although there was ample time for recovery, Unai Emery stated that Ross is currently in poor shape and not fit enough to make the squad.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The upcoming match will be officiated by local referee Tony Harrington, who has overseen 37 Premier League matches, averaging four yellow cards per game. The Englishman has spent much of his career in the lower leagues, known for their tough play. However, across 280 matches in the three lower divisions, his average for yellow cards did not exceed 3.3.

The intensity in the head-to-head clashes between these teams is quite high, with both sides earning more than 1.5 cautions in five consecutive matches. It's reasonable to bet on the individual total for one team, but we'll combine their efforts and go for a total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Brentford's goal-scoring rate in their last 10 matches is significantly higher than their opponents'—3.2 compared to 2.5. Under Unai Emery, Villa have been well-organized defensively, as evidenced by the final 10 games of last season's Premier League, where they conceded more than one goal only twice. We saw the same resilience in their first match this season—even with a red card, Birmingham's defense held firm against Newcastle's pressure.

Brentford managed to score only from a penalty in their match and are unlikely to score much from open play early under their new coach. Keith Andrews' background suggests intricate set-piece plays, and in the last eight head-to-heads, Aston Villa have only twice surpassed the "Bees" in fouls. We believe it's unwise to expect many goals from Brentford—the hosts' individual total will be under 1.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the last 10 Premier League games involving these teams, Brentford have the edge in corner totals: 10.6 compared to 9.7. Corner stats in their seven Premier League head-to-heads are also quite high—the threshold dropped below 10.5 only once. The inclusion of Evan Ferguson during the match could enhance Aston Villa's performance in this area. With limited open-play opportunities, Brentford will certainly rely on set-pieces, given Keith Andrews' expertise in organizing them. We consider a bet on total corners over 9.5 to be well-founded.

Bookmakers offer high odds on both sides, though they slightly favor the visitors. These odds stem from the lackluster performances of both teams in the first round. Aston Villa showed only sporadic flashes of brilliance, mainly after the coach made adjustments during halftime. Brentford confirmed fears of a potential relegation battle following the departure of former key players, managing little in open play aside from a questionable penalty. Considering that the "Bees" will be playing at home, we believe they might capitalize on at least one dangerous set-piece to score a goal. Unai Emery needs to address his team's sluggish start, but even if that doesn't happen, we think they will create enough chances throughout the match to tilt it in their favor with a 2-1 victory. The favorable odds on the favorite allow for a slight hedge by opting for an Aston Villa win with a (0) handicap.