🔊 How will Celtic fare in their first Champions League qualifying match? The Scots begin their journey to the main stage of Europe's premier club competition directly from the playoff round, while Kairat have already navigated through three previous rounds. The first leg between the clubs takes place at Celtic Park in Glasgow. Will it be a mere formality for the hosts, or can the visitors pull off a surprise and reap the rewards for their efforts in the earlier stages? Our prediction will delve into which outcome seems most justified.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams have not faced each other before.

Celtic Team Overview

🍀 The Scottish champions may not have reached the latter stages of last season's Champions League, but they held their own in the ties against Bayern Munich: a 1-2 defeat in Glasgow followed by a 1-1 draw in Munich. Brendan Rodgers' players are known for their strong performances against top clubs and even impressed during the off-season, thrashing Newcastle 4-0. Over the summer, Celtic played seven friendly matches, winning five and losing two. In the Scottish Premiership, which kicked off two rounds ago, the Hoops have predictably maintained a 100% record with two victories and an aggregate score of 3-0.

📝 During the transfer window, the Hoops lost one of their top scorers (13 goals in the league), Nicolas Kühn, who was bought by Como for €19 million. To replace him, they brought in Benjamin Nygren from Nordsjælland, who netted 15 goals in the Danish Superliga. The Swedish forward has started to meet expectations right from the outset, earning the Man of the Match award in the second round of the Premiership with a goal and an assist.

Kairat Almaty Team Overview

🟡 The season in the Kazakhstan Premier League is in full swing, and the reigning champions are juggling Champions League qualifiers between their regular league fixtures. So far, they've managed this balancing act effectively—Rafael Urazbakhtin's squad isn't faltering anywhere: they're sitting in second place in the league, level on points with leaders Astana, and have reached a historic playoff stage in the main European competition, a feat they hadn't achieved before. Kairat began their quest for the Champions League group stage from the very first round, confidently dispatching Olimpija from Ljubljana (1-1; 2-0). The next two rounds were nail-biters: a 0-2 loss and a 3-0 win against Finland's KuPS, followed by a 1-0 win, a 0-1 loss, and a 4-3 victory in a penalty shootout against Slovan Bratislava.

📝 The Almaty-based club operates on a much tighter budget compared to their upcoming Scottish opponents but maximizes their resources. For instance, their summer signing, Brazilian forward Edmilson Santos, has hit the ground running with three goals in four league matches. Additionally, Kairat's young starlet, 18-year-old Dastan Satpayev, continues to shine. Having scored eight times in 20 Premier League appearances, he's also making his mark in the Champions League, netting three goals in six outings. His latest strike secured a home win over Slovan.

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Celtic

🎙 The head coach has repeatedly expressed concern over the squad's depth ahead of the Champions League qualification clash. The Celts face a challenging schedule following their game in Glasgow, with a tough 7,000 km trip to Kazakhstan, immediately followed by a derby against Rangers in the league. "We have time to refresh the squad, so hopefully, it's possible. We hope to strengthen it, and hopefully, we'll achieve that by then," Rodgers said when asked about potential transfers.

❌ Forward Jota will be unavailable to assist the team. The club's winter signing managed to play only 12 matches in a shortened season and injured his knee before the Premiership concluded, which he is still recovering from.

Kairat Almaty

🎙 After a historic victory in the Champions League qualification semi-final, head coach Rafael Urazbakhtin urged his players to maintain their focus for the decisive stage of Europe's premier club competition. "We must remember this joyous moment. We are making history, you are making history. This hunger, we need to keep it. Do you understand, guys? We need to make some noise in Europe!" said Urazbakhtin.

❌ Brazilian forward Elder Santana is definitely out for the upcoming match as he has been sidelined since March with a knee injury. The participation of another South American, Joao Paulo, and Georgian Giorgi Zaria is doubtful; the former sustained an injury in April, while Zaria got hurt in the match against Slovan.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The upcoming match in Glasgow will be officiated by Norwegian referee Espen Andreas Eskas. Over his last 10 Champions League matches, he has averaged 3.6 yellow cards per game. Most of Eskas's career has been spent in Norway's Eliteserien, where he has issued an average of 3.3 yellow cards over 178 matches.

In Celtic's last 10 official matches, an average of 3.6 yellow cards were recorded. In contrast, Kairat's matches have seen a much higher average of 5.9 yellow cards. Both leagues are known for their physical style of play, but the "Bhoys" receive significantly fewer cautions due to their higher caliber compared to most teams they face. We believe this difference in team levels will be evident in Glasgow, thus we predict a win for Kairat in terms of yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Celtic's last 10 matches have been more prolific in terms of goals compared to Almaty's side, with an average of 3.4 goals per game against 2.3. However, both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring games in the Champions League. For instance, Celtic's last six consecutive matches in Europe's premier competition have featured less than 2.5 goals. Based on this trend, the most reasonable choice is a total of under 3.5 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Celtic deliver an extraordinary number of corners, averaging 8.6 over their last 10 games, which is enough to cover the total for both teams. Kairat's corresponding figure is more modest at 6.2, yet this has been sufficient for 6 out of their last 7 matches to exceed a total of 9.5 corners. Given both clubs' affinity for playing near the corner flags, we anticipate that the match in Glasgow will feature more than 9.5 corners.

The disparity in odds between the opponents is staggering, with bookmakers almost twenty times more confident in the hosts, which we consider a gross injustice. While it's undeniable that there's a significant gap in quality between the teams, Kairat have consistently been underdogs in away matches since the first round of Champions League qualification, yet they haven't lost by more than two goals. The key takeaway is that even higher-caliber teams have faltered, while the Almaty side continues to fight for a spot in the main stage. We believe that against Celtic, the Kazakhs can show resilience and at least avoid a heavy defeat, perhaps with a scoreline like 0-2. We suggest considering the attractive odds for Kairat to win with a +2.5 handicap.