🔊 How will Leeds United fare in the Premier League after a two-year absence? They kick off their campaign at home against Everton at Elland Road. The visitors, rejuvenated under David Moyes, are determined to break into the top ten and perhaps even challenge for European spots. The Peacocks aim to secure their place in England's top flight for more than just a single season—a feat they last achieved from 2021 to 2023. Who has the better odds for a successful start to the season? Let's dive into our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Leeds United have been infrequent visitors to England's top flight. Over the past 20 years, the club has spent just three seasons in the Premier League — 2022/23, 2021/22, and 2020/21. During this period, the Whites have faced Everton six times: Leeds claimed victory once, the Toffees won three times, and two matches ended in a draw.

Leeds United Team Overview

⚪️ Leeds clinched the Championship title last season, finishing level on points with Burnley (100), thanks to their superior goal difference. Despite conceding 14 more goals than their closest rivals, Daniel Farke's side outscored them significantly, netting 95 to their 69. In domestic cup competitions, their best achievement was reaching the FA Cup round of 16, where they were defeated by Millwall 0-2. During preseason, Leeds faced formidable opponents like Manchester United, Villarreal, and AC Milan, and managed to hold their own against these high-caliber teams.

📝 The Whites have made a significant investment in strengthening their midfield and defensive line ahead of their campaign in the top flight. They brought in seasoned players from Europe's top five leagues: goalkeeper Lucas Perry (from Lyon), defenders Gabriel Gudmundsson (from Lille), Jaka Bijol (from Udinese), and Sebastian Bornauw (from Wolfsburg), midfielders Anton Stach (from Hoffenheim) and Sean Longstaff (from Newcastle). To enhance an already effective attack, they signed the talented Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who, despite a dip in form in recent years at Everton, is eager to rejuvenate his career at Leeds.

Everton Team Overview

🔵 The club from the blue half of Liverpool wrapped up last season's Premier League campaign in 13th place. For much of the season, the Toffees hovered around the lower end of the table, near 16th place. However, David Moyes' return to the club helped improve Everton's standing. Under the Scotsman's guidance for 19 matches, Everton's form was on par with an 11th place finish in the EPL. They failed to make a mark in either the English League Cup or the FA Cup, exiting both competitions at the Round of 16. The preseason wasn't much better, as they suffered three defeats in four friendlies—against Bournemouth, West Ham, and Roma—and drew once with Manchester United.

📝 Just before the championship kicked off, the Toffees added some well-known Premier League talent to their squad. Midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall arrived from Chelsea for €28.7 million. They also secured a one-year loan deal for one of England's most flamboyant players, Jack Grealish from Manchester City. In addition to acquisitions, Everton bid farewell to seasoned veterans—38-year-old Asmir Begovic and 40-year-old Ashley Young. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who had lost his form in recent years, also departed after nine years at Goodison Park, joining future opponents of the Blues in their opening EPL fixture.

Latest news

Leeds United

🎙 "We don't need to discuss his qualities. He possesses all the skills a forward needs. This is his chance to reignite his career and reach the heights he once achieved in the Premier League. He's in great shape, having proven himself at Premier League level with over 200 appearances and 60 goals, and he has scored four goals in 11 matches for the England national team," said Leeds head coach Daniel Farke about Leeds' new forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

❌ New signing Jaka Bijol will miss the match as he received two yellow cards in his last Serie A game, and his suspension carries over to the first round of the Premier League. Defenders Sebastian Bornauw and Jayden Bogle suffered injuries during preseason but have resumed training this week and could be included in the squad for Monday's match.

Everton

🎙 David Moyes shared his thoughts on the departure of prominent players and expressed gratitude for their time with the team: "Since my return to the club, I've seen what a great professional Ash is. His versatility, experience, and leadership qualities have been incredibly valuable to the team and to me. Asmir and Dominic also worked diligently and conducted themselves impeccably. On behalf of everyone at the club, I want to thank these three players for their contributions, and we wish them all the best in the future."

❌ Star defender Jarrod Branthwaite of the Toffees will definitely miss Monday's game – he injured his hamstring during training earlier this week and is expected to return only by the second round of the Premier League. During the preseason, defenders Vitaliy Mykolenko and Nathan Patterson also picked up injuries – David Moyes has not disclosed the severity of their injuries, leaving their participation in the match uncertain.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The referee in charge of maintaining order on the field will be Chris Kavanagh, who averages 3.6 yellow cards in his last 10 Premier League matches. Notably, in 5 of his last 6 games, the Englishman has issued fewer than 4 cautions.

In the same period, across their last 10 official matches, Everton edge Leeds in terms of average yellow cards received—2.3 compared to 1.8. However, the total number of cautions in games involving today's opponents is roughly equal—3.4 for Everton against 3.6 for Leeds.

To sum up, it's the first round, and both teams will be eager to battle, so the referee will have plenty to do. We believe Kavanagh will reach into his pocket at least four times for a card this time. We suggest betting on over 3.5 yellow cards, a bet that has landed in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings between Leeds and Everton.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

Leeds United lead their upcoming opponent in average goals over the last 10 matches—3 compared to 2.5. Interestingly, while Everton's goals are almost evenly split between halves (1.2 in the first half to 1.3 in the second), Leeds show a significant bias towards the first half—1.9 to 1.1. This is supported by their record of scoring in the first half in 9 of their last 10 games. Considering Everton's defensive injuries, we anticipate that the newly promoted Premier League side's forwards will immediately pressure Everton's goal. Our pick: Leeds to score in the first half.

🚩 Corner Predictions

In terms of corners over their last 10 matches (including preseason), Everton slightly surpass their opponent with an average of 8.9 compared to 8. However, Leeds United have taken more corners than their opponents in 8 out of 10 games, and their individual total hasn't dropped below 4.5 in 23 of their last 24 matches. With the arrival of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, strong in aerial duels, we expect the number of set-pieces around Leeds' opponents' goal to increase. We'll test this theory in the first round with a bet on Leeds over 4.5 corners.

Bookmakers surprisingly favor the Premier League newcomers in their odds, but this choice shouldn't be too shocking, especially when you consider Leeds' preseason opponents. Despite the difference in class, Daniel Farke's squad held their own against more renowned teams and even dominated possession against Milan (64% to 36%). However, we must not overlook an improved Everton, whose results may not have drastically improved over the summer, but their quality of play certainly has. After a draw with Manchester United (2-2), the Toffees lost to Roma (0-1) but didn't relinquish control (possession – 47% to 53%) and managed an impressive 1.7 expected goals (xG). We believe that the positive trend for David Moyes' Blues will continue, and they will hold their ground against the in-form Leeds, securing a 1-1 draw. Therefore, we suggest betting on the underdog status of the visitors and wagering that Everton will not lose.