🔊 Can we anticipate an upset in the German Super Cup, similar to what happened in the English Super Cup? Will Stuttgart, the German Cup winners, be able to put up a strong fight against the national champions Bayern, especially with the game being held at their home ground, the MHP Arena? We'll attempt to answer these questions in our prediction, but first, let's review how both teams have performed over the past two and a half months.

Head-to-Head

📊 The clubs have faced each other 40 times: Bayern have claimed victory 31 times, Stuttgart have won 5, and 4 matches ended in a draw. Last season, the Munich side dominated Stuttgart twice: a 4-0 win at the Allianz Arena and a 3-1 triumph at the MHP Arena.

Stuttgart Team Overview

⚪ Under the guidance of Sebastian Hoeneß, the team finished 9th in the Bundesliga last season—a modest result compared to the 23/24 campaign when the club were runners-up. However, the "Swabians" reached the final of the national cup, defeating Preußen Münster (5-0), Kaiserslautern (2-1), Regensburg (3-0), Augsburg (1-0), and Leipzig (3-1). In the decisive match, they faced Arminia Bielefeld (4-2). The suspense was over by halftime, as Stuttgart led 3-0 by the 28th minute, and the outcome was sealed by the 66th minute. Stuttgart claimed the German Cup for the first time since 1997. Alongside Enzo Millot's brace, Niklas Woltmann and Deniz Undav also got on the scoresheet.

🔴 Following that triumph, the team took a well-deserved break and returned after a month and a half. Alongside their training camp, the "Swabians" played four friendly matches: winning three and losing one. They first defeated modest Fellbach (7-1), then Celta Vigo (2-1) and French side Toulouse (6-0), before concluding with a loss to Bologna (0-1).

Bayern Munich Team Overview

🔴 In his debut season, Belgian tactician Vincent Kompany achieved the primary objective—bringing the Bundesliga trophy back to Munich. Bayern clinched the German championship with two games to spare. In the Champions League, the Munich side fell short in the quarter-finals to Milan's Inter, losing 4-3 on aggregate. In the DFB-Pokal, they were knocked out in the Round of 16 by Bayer Leverkusen with a 1-0 defeat.

⚪ Over the summer, the national champions participated in the Club World Cup held in the USA. In Group C, their opponents were Benfica, Boca Juniors, and Auckland City. Bayern advanced as runners-up, thrashing Auckland 10-0 and edging Boca 2-1, though they lost 1-0 to Benfica. In the Round of 16, they defeated Flamengo 4-2 but were eliminated in the quarter-finals by Paris Saint-Germain with a 2-0 loss. Ahead of the new season, Bayern played three friendlies, winning all: against Lyon (2-1), Tottenham (4-0), and Grasshopper (2-1).

Latest news

Stuttgart

💰 This summer, the club sold Enzo Millot to Saudi Arabia's Al-Ahli for €28 million, Jacob Bruun Larsen to England's Burnley for €4 million, Jung Woo-young to Union Berlin for €4 million, and Henri Chase to Salzburg for €2 million.

📝 With these funds, they acquired Lorenz Assignon from Rennes for €12 million, Lazar Jovanovic from Red Star Belgrade for €5 million, Chema Andres from Real Castilla for €3 million, and Noah Darvich from Barcelona B for €1 million.

❌ In the Super Cup, defenders Leonidas Stergiou and Dan-Axel Zagadou, midfielder Angelo Stiller, and winger Silas Katompa Mvumpa will miss out due to injuries.

Bayern Munich

💰 Over the summer, the club earned €35 million from the sale of Mathys Tel to Tottenham. Additionally, João Palhinha joined Tottenham on loan for €5 million. Bryan Zaragoza moved on loan to Celta Vigo for €1 million, while Adam Aznou transferred to Everton for €9 million. Leroy Sané left the club as a free agent, joining Galatasaray.

📝 Among the acquisitions are Jonathan Tah, who arrived as a free agent, and Luis Díaz, for whom they paid Liverpool €70 million. Negotiations are also underway for forward Nick Woltemade. Stuttgart rejected Bayern's €60 million offer, demanding €75 million instead.

❌ Due to injuries, left-back Alphonso Davies, attacking midfielder Jamal Musiala, center-back Hiroki Ito, and defensive midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic will miss the Super Cup.

Prediction for the 1st half

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The German Super Cup will be officiated by Harm Osmers, who averages 4.19 yellow cards per match. Last season, Stuttgart averaged 4.8 cautions per game, while Bayern saw 3.9. Considering their playing styles, it's reasonable to predict that the hosts might commit more fouls, making a bet on Stuttgart leading in yellow cards seem logical.

⚽ Goal Predictions

The last 13 head-to-head encounters between these teams have seen at least 3 goals scored in total, so betting on over 2.5 goals appears to be a well-founded prediction.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Last season's average corner totals were 5.6 for Stuttgart and 6.8 for Bayern. It's expected that Bayern will earn more corners as they are likely to attack more and create chances at the opponent's goal. Prediction: Bayern to win on corners.

There's no doubt that the Munich club stands as the favorite from every angle you look at it. They are strong across the board, even with key players sidelined due to injuries, thanks to their deeper squad compared to Stuttgart's. While we don't label the hosts as complete underdogs (as Crystal Palace showed us in the English Super Cup), and we anticipate they might find the net, perhaps more than once, Bayern's defensive core is much more solid, their midfield far more skilled, and their attacking line significantly stronger. Therefore, our prediction is a Bayern victory in regular time. The likely scoreline: 1-3.