🔊 Will Tottenham's two-day break after the UEFA Super Cup be enough for a successful Premier League opener? They'll face Burnley, who have made a swift return to the top flight after a year in the Championship. The match is set for this Saturday at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, marking the team's first homecoming of the summer. Can the Spurs bounce back from their loss to PSG in front of their local fans, who turned out in large numbers to support them in Udine? Let's delve into our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over their last 10 encounters across all competitions, Tottenham have claimed victory 8 times, Burnley have won once, and the teams have shared the spoils on one occasion. Notably, 5 of those 8 wins ended with a 1-0 scoreline. 

Tottenham Hotspur Team Overview

⚪️ The Spurs finished last season's Premier League campaign just one spot above the relegation zone, placing 17th out of 20. However, they ended on a high note by bringing the Europa League title to North London after defeating Manchester United (1-0) in the final. This made Tottenham the first team in history to qualify for the Champions League from such a low league position. Over the summer, Thomas Frank took charge and led an extensive preseason: 2 wins, 2 losses, and 3 draws. Under their new manager, the Lilywhites nearly claimed the UEFA Super Cup from PSG, drawing 2-2 in regular time and losing 3-4 on penalties.

📝 During the off-season, the club strategically refreshed their midfield and defense. Defenders Luka Vušković and Kevin Danso were signed from Lens and Hajduk, respectively. The standout acquisition was midfielder Mohammed Kudus, who joined for €63.8 million from West Ham. He impressed against PSG, although Richarlison squandered the chances he created. Richarlison's inconsistent form prompted Spurs to secure the permanent transfer of Mathys Tel for €35 million from Bayern, having already spent six months in London. They also loaned defensive midfielder João Palhinha from Bayern, who previously played in the Premier League with Fulham. There were losses too, as Tottenham legend Son Heung-min moved to Los Angeles.

Burnley Team Overview

🔗 Since the 2020/21 season, Burnley have struggled to secure their place in the Premier League, frequently bouncing between the top flight and the Championship. The upcoming campaign marks their third in four years and the first since 2022 under new manager Scott Parker. He took over after Vincent Kompany's departure and led the Clarets back to the English elite, finishing second with the best defensive record (16 goals conceded in 46 matches). During the summer break, Burnley managed just one win out of five friendlies, suffering four losses and securing one draw.

📝 This summer, the Championship runners-up strengthened their squad with a €101.7 million investment. Most of the acquisitions were under €15 million, but Burnley made some notable signings. They brought in midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu from Chelsea for €28.7 million and forward Armando Broja for €23 million. Additionally, two veterans, Kyle Walker and Martin Dubravka, joined the club. Dubravka is seen as a potential replacement for Burnley's main goalkeeper, James Trafford, who was signed by Manchester City for €31.2 million.

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Tottenham Hotspur

🎙 Thomas Frank highlighted the beginning of his team's successful transformation after the match against PSG: "I believe we played a very good game against one of the best clubs in the world. Perhaps the best. We controlled them for eighty minutes, and the first half was nearly perfect, with set-pieces being particularly dangerous. In this specific match, we showed we can compete against any team in the world. I have no doubt about that, and it's a very positive takeaway."

❌ Tottenham could have showcased an even better performance in the UEFA Super Cup, but a series of injuries to key players held them back: Dejan Kulusevski (knee injury) and Radu Dragusin (cruciate ligament) have been sidelined since last season. For the same reason as the Romanian defender, Tottenham's leader James Maddison was ruled out during preseason. There's uncertainty over the participation of defender Destiny Udogie and midfielder Yves Bissouma in the Premier League opener. Bissouma missed out on the squad for the PSG clash due to disciplinary issues (lateness to training), while Udogie is training with the main group after recovering from a knee injury.

Burnley

🎙 On social media, fans are buzzing about the controversial transfer of Armando Broja, who has struggled to secure a spot at Chelsea over the years. "If Parker can get something out of Broja similar to what he achieved with Aleksandar Mitrovic, we might have a chance. People seem to misunderstand Parker's tactics and game plan. Broja fits well into our system," they say.

🎙 Kyle Walker also reached out to fans, saying, "I'm thrilled to join Burnley. I can't wait to get back on the pitch and play. Thank you to everyone who made this move possible. Come on, Clarets," the defender wrote on his social media page.

❌ In the upcoming game, Burnley will definitely be without Bashir Humphreys, who injured his quadriceps at the end of last season's Championship campaign. It's unlikely that potential first-choice goalkeeper Martin Dubravka will play, as he suffered a shoulder injury before his move from Newcastle. The participation of the club's second top scorer, midfielder Zian Flemming (12 goals), is also in doubt after missing the entire preseason due to a muscle injury.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Michael Oliver. He has averaged 4 yellow cards per game over his last 10 Premier League matches. This might be good news for Tottenham, as neither they nor their opponents have received more than four yellow cards in their last five league games. However, in their last six head-to-head encounters with Burnley, the teams have averaged 4.1 yellow cards.

The "Clarets" from the Championship significantly outpace their opponents in average card count—4.8 compared to Tottenham's 3.2 (over the last five league matches). Tottenham's lower number of cards can be attributed to a lack of motivation beyond the Europa League towards the season's end. We believe that Michael Oliver's officiating style and both teams' eagerness at the start of the Premier League season will result in a total of more than 3.5 yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Here, we want to highlight the individual scoring stats from their head-to-head meetings. Tottenham's average goals scored stand at 2.12, while Burnley's is 0.88. The difference is significant, and Premier League newcomers should be wary of Thomas Frank's set pieces, which even troubled PSG twice. However, let's not overlook Burnley's exemplary defense and Tottenham's lackluster attack—Tottenham have scored fewer than 3 goals in 13 of their last 14 matches across all competitions, including preseason under their new manager. The favorable odds suggest a total of under 2.5 goals for Tottenham.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In this case, let's also look at the head-to-head meetings between these teams. The total number of corners exceeded 9.5 only once in six games. This occurred in the 2021 English League Cup, where Tottenham typically gives playing time to rotation players. In that match, Tottenham led by just one corner, while in all other encounters, the gap was three or more. We anticipate that with a new manager, this gap could widen further. Our pick: Tottenham to win on corners with a -2.5 handicap.

After Tottenham's commendable performance in the UEFA Super Cup, the odds for their upcoming clash with Burnley are rapidly approaching parity. Thomas Frank's tactical influence was evident against PSG, with both goals coming from set pieces. However, there are concerns about the players' form following such an intense match and the absence of key creative players in the lineup. Historically, Tottenham have only once defeated Burnley by more than a single goal margin.

Leading the Championship in terms of fewest goals conceded highlights Scott Parker's team's defensive discipline. Additionally, Burnley have covered the +1.5 handicap in 45 of their last 46 matches (23 out of 24 away). We don't anticipate a high-scoring affair and foresee a narrow Tottenham victory, possibly 1-0. We wish the Clarets a strong start to the season and lean towards them with a bet on Burnley to win with a +1.5 handicap.