🔊 Who will emerge victorious in the clash of last season's Premier League table neighbors—Aston Villa or Newcastle? The intensity of this matchup stems from the fact that the Magpies edged out the Birmingham side for a spot in the top European competition, despite being level on points—the goal difference made all the difference. Can the Lions seek revenge against Eddie Howe's squad for what they see as a "robbery" on their home turf at Villa Park? In our prediction, we'll assess the current form of both teams and their chances for a successful start to the season.

Head-to-Head

📊 The club statistics for the last 10 Premier League matches are as follows: Aston Villa have secured 4 wins, Newcastle have claimed 5 victories, and one match ended in a draw. The aggregate score stands at 17-14 in favor of Newcastle.

Aston Villa Team Overview

🦁 The Birmingham side wrapped up last season in the Premier League with 66 points, securing a 6th place finish and a spot in the Europa League—Unai Emery's favorite competition. However, they made a splash in the Champions League by reaching the quarterfinals and nearly knocking out the eventual champions, PSG (4-5 on aggregate). Their pre-season was inconsistent, with 3 wins, 3 losses, and 2 draws. Noteworthy victories included triumphs over Roma (4-0) and Villarreal (2-0).

📝 On the transfer front, Villa were relatively quiet. Unai Emery was searching for a quality replacement for John Duran, who left for Al-Nassr in January for €77 million. After the loan spells of Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford ended, the club set their sights on Nice's top striker—Evann Guessand, who netted 12 goals in Ligue 1 and was acquired for €30 million. The future of Birmingham's goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez remains uncertain, as he has expressed a desire to leave. His contract runs until 2029, making it challenging to find a buyer willing to pay a substantial fee for the 31-year-old. Saudi clubs and Manchester United showed interest but haven't made concrete offers. As a precaution, Aston Villa signed Brest's 34-year-old keeper Marco Bizot.

Newcastle United Team Overview

⚫ The Magpies couldn't replicate their Premier League 2022/23 campaign (71 points – 4th place), but that didn't stop them from qualifying for the Champions League by finishing 5th. A season without European competitions proved beneficial for Eddie Howe's squad as they clinched the English League Cup, defeating Liverpool in the final (2-1), marking the club's first trophy in 70 years. However, Newcastle struggled to carry that success into the summer preseason, suffering 4 losses and 2 draws in 6 friendlies. The only relatively positive results came in draws against Tottenham (1-1) and Espanyol (2-2).

📝 Despite a promising start to the transfer window with the acquisition of Anthony Elanga for €61.4 million, the continuation hasn't been as successful for the Magpies. Amid ongoing rumors about Alexander Isak's departure, the club actively searched for his replacement but missed out on Benjamin Sesko and Joao Pedro. Regarding Isak himself, the club stated they wouldn't let the forward leave without securing two strikers. One potential addition could be Nicolas Jackson from Chelsea, with a price tag of at least €74 million. Meanwhile, the Black and Blues are strengthening other areas, having signed Germany international defender Malick Thiaw from Milan for €30 million.

Latest news

Aston Villa

🎙 Back in the winter, Unai Emery was counting on an active transfer window in the summer off-season: "The management told me that now is not the best time to make purchases. But they also said that things will be different in the summer, and we will have the opportunity to spend money." However, working without drastic changes doesn't faze the Spanish specialist either: "It's easiest for me to ask the club for more players, but I love working with the ones we have. My job is to make them stronger."

❌ Morgan Rogers' participation in the opening round of the Premier League is doubtful after the Englishman suffered an ankle injury during pre-season matches. Emi Martinez's future at Villa Park is clouded by transfer rumors, even though he featured in 4 out of 8 friendly matches this summer. However, the Argentine will miss the upcoming game due to a red card he received in the last round of the 2024/25 Premier League season.

Newcastle United

🎙 "I'd love for Isak to play today, and I'd love for him to train tomorrow. We want him with us—let me be clear. Deep down, I'm not against this outcome. I don't think it's as simple as banning Isak's transfer; otherwise, we would have done it a long time ago. I don't think we're currently in a position to do that," Newcastle's head coach Eddie Howe commented on Alexander Isak's future.

❌ In the Premier League opener, Newcastle will be without Joe Willock, who hasn't recovered from his injury in time, and Alexander Isak, who is holding out due to a potential transfer. Anthony Gordon's participation is doubtful after he suffered a minor ankle sprain last week. However, the player himself has expressed his eagerness to play and hopes to recover in time for the match against Aston Villa.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The upcoming match will be officiated by Craig Pawson. Over his last 10 Premier League games, he averages 4.3 yellow cards. However, in head-to-head encounters between these teams, the average is slightly lower at 3.7, although their last meeting saw both clubs receive a total of four cautions.

In terms of yellow cards over their last 10 EPL matches, the teams are relatively even: Aston Villa average 1.7, while Newcastle average 1.5. The "Villans" at home and the "Magpies" away have nearly identical stats in this area: consistent over 7 consecutive games and in 7 of the last 8 matches respectively. We believe the teams will take some time to adjust to each other, so we're betting on total yellow cards under 4.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Newcastle have scored more than one goal at Villa Park only once in their last eight visits and in just one of their last seven away Premier League matches. Given the attacking struggles of the "Toon," we find that opting for Newcastle's total goals under 1.5 is a reasonable prediction.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The last head-to-head match in Birmingham saw 14 corners taken. This high output is supported by a trend in their last five meetings, which all featured more than 8.5 corners. However, we noticed that the odds on handicap markets are more appealing than the total. The acquisition of 185-centimeter Evan Gissande gives Villa an edge in aerial duels. Our pick is Aston Villa to win the corners with a handicap (0).

Bookmakers favor Aston Villa with a slight edge in this matchup. The Birmingham side impressed during preseason, proving they can achieve positive results without heavy spending in the transfer market. However, they will be without their usual first-choice goalkeeper in the opening match, although this is somewhat offset by Newcastle's issues in attack.

In the last six head-to-head encounters between these clubs, there have been no fewer than three goals scored in each game, so we anticipate another thrilling contest this time around, with the hosts edging it out with a scoreline of 2-1. Villa boast an eight-game winning streak at home across all competitions, including five in the Premier League. We believe there are strong reasons for the Lions to at least avoid defeat in their Premier League opener, if not extend their winning run further. The odds make it appealing to place a confident bet on Aston Villa to win with a (0) handicap.