🔊 Can Borussia Dortmund pull off a surprise? They've reached the quarter-finals of the Club World Cup without facing any European teams along the way. But all good things must come to an end. Next up is Real Madrid, who are, of course, the clear favorites in this matchup. The game is set for July 5 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. This will be the first visit for "Los Blancos," while Dortmund kicked off their tournament at this venue with a goalless draw against Fluminense. How will Niko Kovac's squad handle their role as underdogs? We'll delve into this and more in our prediction. 

Head-to-Head

📊 The head-to-head history between these teams includes numerous matches, but interestingly, they've only clashed in the Champions League. In the 21st century, they've met 14 times: Madrid have won seven, Borussia have claimed three victories, and four games ended in draws.

We vividly remember Robert Lewandowski's four-goal haul and Cristiano Ronaldo's goals, but those are memories from the past. The only relevant encounters are the two matches from last year. Real defeated Borussia in the 2023/24 Champions League final (2-0) and also in the group stage of the previous campaign (5-2). Vinicius Junior was on target in both games, netting a total of four goals.

Considering Real's successful run of four consecutive wins against Borussia, with two of them being relatively recent, a bet on Real's victory seems well-founded.

Real Madrid Team Overview

⚪ The Blancos navigated the group stage confidently, though not without a few hiccups. Under Xabi Alonso's guidance, the team is still finding its rhythm. They started the tournament with a four-man defense but later switched to the Basque specialist's favored three center-backs. Interestingly, Aurélien Tchouaméni has taken on the playmaker role and is handling it well. The same can be said for Arda Güler, who is impressing in the holding midfield position.

👑 At least Real have kept two consecutive clean sheets. Juventus had a few decent chances, but the Madrid side outperformed the Turin club in all key metrics, taking nearly four times as many shots (21-6). Fede Valverde alone threatened the goal as many times as all the players of the Old Lady combined.

🔝 However, it wasn't the Uruguayan who scored, but Gonzalo García, a true revelation of the tournament. While Kylian Mbappé was recovering from gastroenteritis, the cantera product seized his opportunities. The Spaniard is the only player to have contributed to goals in every match of the Club World Cup (3+1) and is also the sole representative from Madrid to make it into the official Team of the Round of 16.

Borussia Dortmund Team Overview

🟡 Niko Kovač took charge of Borussia in January, and against the odds, salvaged the season. The team surged into the Bundesliga's top four, securing a spot in the Champions League, and are currently performing well at the Club World Cup. Admittedly, the "Bumblebees" had a favorable draw with their opponents in the USA. Fluminense (0-0), Mamelodi Sundowns (4-3), and Ulsan (1-0) formed arguably one of the weakest groups.

⚫ In the Round of 16, Niko Kovač's squad faced a relatively unthreatening opponent in Mexico's Monterrey. The partnership of Karim Adeyemi and Serhou Guirassy clicked twice by the 24th minute, seemingly creating a comfortable cushion. However, the second half saw Monterrey grow sharper and more persistent. They narrowed the deficit and crafted several dangerous opportunities. Sergio Ramos came close to forcing extra time in the dying minutes, but his shot narrowly missed the post.

🔝 Serhou Guirassy stands as Dortmund's undisputed attacking leader. The Guinean has scored 12 goals in his last 10 matches, which speaks volumes. He was the standout player against Monterrey, netting a brace and could have had four if he had converted two more clear-cut chances.

Latest news

Real Madrid

❗ According to Opta, Madrid are ranked as the third favorites for the Club World Cup. Their odds of reaching the final stand at 27.1%, with a 16.9% chance of winning the title.

🎙 "I'm thrilled with the result, our progression to the quarter-finals, and our overall performance. I believe that after the first 15 minutes, we started to control the game well. It was a tough challenge, but we were professional and handled it really well," said Xabi Alonso following the match against Juventus.

📝 El Chiringuito reports that Vinicius and Real Madrid have paused negotiations over a new contract. The Brazilian is demanding unprecedented terms.

❌ Real's injury list is gradually clearing up. Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal have been included in the squad for the game against Juventus, and Kylian Mbappe even made an appearance on the field. However, David Alaba, Endrick, Ferland Mendy, and Eduardo Camavinga remain sidelined. Nonetheless, only the French players could have significantly bolstered the team.

Borussia Dortmund

❗ According to Opta, Borussia's chances of winning the tournament stand at just 7.6%. Only Al-Hilal (4.3%), Palmeiras (3%), and Fluminense (1.5%) have lower odds.

🎙 Niko Kovac: “As we expected, the match against Monterrey was tough. We played well in the first half and should have scored one or two more goals. In the second half, we defended well, which was necessary. We were under a lot of pressure, but I don't think we allowed the opponent to create too many chances. In the end, we achieved our goal. The match against Real is a bonus and a big challenge for us.”

📝 Jamie Gittens is currently with Borussia Dortmund, but he has already undergone a medical for his move to Chelsea and will no longer train with the team.

❌ Borussia continue to cope without injured players Salih Ozcan, Emre Can, and Nico Schlotterbeck. Additionally, Jobe Bellingham will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards, so we won't see the brothers' duel.

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

In this aspect, the teams are quite different. Borussia Dortmund averages 2 yellow cards per match throughout the tournament, while Madrid only picks up 0.7. We believe the "Bumblebees" will need to defend more, which could lead to them exceeding their opponents in terms of warnings. Betting on Dortmund to win the yellow card battle seems logical.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Thibaut Courtois has kept two consecutive clean sheets, but it's hard to say Real's defense has been flawless. Both Salzburg and Juventus had their chances. Borussia's Guirassy and Adeyemi are in great form and can certainly trouble Rüdiger and his crew. We anticipate goals from both sides, so a bet on both teams to score (yes) is a solid play, having come through in 5 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Real Madrid holds more possession than Borussia (56% versus 50%) and earns more corners (5.5 compared to 4) throughout the tournament. This is despite facing tougher opposition. For instance, against Juventus, they took 11 corners. We expect at least half that number from Alonso's squad in the upcoming match. We're backing Real's individual total of over 4.5 corners, as Madrid have surpassed this mark in 6 of their last 7 games.

Real Madrid enter the quarter-finals as favorites, and it's hard to argue against that. Unlike Borussia, they have faced a couple of serious tests and it's evident that the team is making progress under Alonso's guidance. Therefore, a fifth consecutive victory for Los Blancos over the Black and Yellows seems the most likely outcome. Given the history of their head-to-head encounters and the current form of both teams, we're leaning towards a high-scoring game – a 4-1 win for the Royal Club.

Our editorial team believes that Los Blancos will score at least twice. They have managed this in their last six meetings against Borussia, as well as in eight of their last ten games this season. Dortmund tend to allow plenty of chances near their goal, with only Ulsan failing to pose a threat due to their lack of individual quality, whereas other opponents consistently challenged Gregor Kobel. We doubt that the Black and Yellows will be able to contain the star-studded attack of the Galacticos. Thus, our main betting option is on Real Madrid's individual total over 1.5 goals.