🔊 Can Belgium close the gap on Wales in the race for a spot at the 2026 World Cup? Currently, there's a six-point difference between the teams, but Rudy Garcia's side have two games in hand. They are considered strong favorites in this matchup, yet they looked less than convincing in their recent outings. Given certain circumstances, the Welsh could potentially pick up points in Brussels at the King Baudouin Stadium. We'll explore various scenarios to ensure an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over a stretch of six official matches, all three outcomes have been evenly split. The last time these sides met was in the 2022 UEFA Nations League. They played out a 1-1 draw in Cardiff, while Belgium secured a 2-1 victory at home without showing clear dominance.

Wales have found the net in every match during this period. Currently, Belgium's defense is the weakest it has been in recent years. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect a goal from the visitors.

Belgium Team Overview

🔴 Belgium recently had a golden generation that never quite fulfilled its potential. Following that, they hit a rough patch. Domenico Tedesco took charge at a challenging time, managing only one victory at Euro 2024. In the UEFA Nations League, they scraped together just four points and narrowly avoided direct relegation to League B, edging out Israel. Then came the playoff matches against Ukraine under the guidance of Rudi Garcia (1-3, 3-0).

⚫ Belgium played their first qualifier of the current campaign in Skopje. They were clear favorites against North Macedonia. The team had a strong first half, taking a deserved lead midway through. However, they shifted to a more defensive approach afterward. A warning sign came early in the second half when VAR disallowed a Macedonian goal for offside. There was also a penalty review. Ultimately, Belgium conceded in the 86th minute, letting the win slip away (1-1).

🔝 Romelu Lukaku's position in the Belgian squad is virtually unchallenged. While there are other talented forwards, the coaches place their trust in him. This season has been a triumph for the Belgian striker. He clinched the Serie A title with Napoli and achieved a double-double in goals and assists for the first time (14+10). However, the national team misses his scoring touch. In the UEFA Nations League, he netted three goals in three matches, but at Euro 2024, he hasn't found the back of the net.

Wales Team Overview

🟢 Wales boast a strong national team. They narrowly missed out on a spot at Euro 2024, falling to Poland in the playoff via a penalty shootout. Their recent UEFA Nations League campaign was a success, as they went unbeaten and topped their group, earning promotion to League A.

⚪ The Dragons' unbeaten streak has continued in the current tournament. Against North Macedonia, they salvaged a draw with a goal in the sixth minute of stoppage time (1-1). In their two home matches, they have been flawless. First, they confidently defeated Kazakhstan (3-1), and recently they thrashed Liechtenstein (3-0), not allowing a single shot on their goal while maintaining nearly 80% possession.

🔝 The standout star for Wales is winger Brennan Johnson, who is in his second season with Tottenham. The club struggled in the Premier League, but the Welshman posted solid numbers with 11 goals and three assists. Notably, he scored the only goal in the Europa League final against Manchester United, securing the trophy and a Champions League spot for his club. Expectations are high for Johnson with the national team, as he has yet to make a mark in the current qualifying campaign.

Latest news

Belgium

🎙 Belgian media have criticized the national team following their draw with North Macedonia: “The whole team performed below average. With such quality, one goal is not enough. Lukaku is an Italian champion, and Doku plays for Manchester City. North Macedonia doesn't have a single player who could play for the Red Devils. We can afford to be critical.” Kevin De Bruyne also faced criticism after being substituted in the 57th minute: “He has a history of injuries, and with ongoing talks with new clubs, he didn't want to play 90 minutes twice. He definitely doesn't want to risk an injury now.”

❌ Rudi Garcia announced Thibaut Courtois' return to the national team in March. However, the goalkeeper is currently dealing with minor health issues causing discomfort but not requiring serious treatment. A week's rest has been recommended to alleviate the pain. As a result, he is missing national team games and preparing for the Club World Cup.

Wales

🎙 Wales head coach Craig Bellamy is resolute about the trip to Brussels: "I'm not going to camp out and sit around idly. That's not in my nature. I can't do it, I don't want to do it. So give me a bit more time to watch the game. I've got a few more thoughts in mind, but I'm genuinely excited."

✅ Craig Bellamy has called up 18-year-old Ronan Kpakio for the first time, highlighting his remarkable progress. Harry Wilson and Ethan Ampadu return to the squad after recovering from injuries.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The appointed referee for this match is Irfan Peljto from Bosnia and Herzegovina. This season, he has officiated three international matches, including one involving Belgium. In their clash with France, the referee handed out nine yellow cards, six of which went to the French team. During this brief period, Peljto also issued two red cards. Across all competitions, he averages just 3.81 cautions per game.

Wales have the edge in yellow cards this season (2.1 compared to 1.9). Matches involving Wales average five yellow cards, whereas Belgium's games see slightly over four. Given the referee's statistics, betting on over 3.5 total yellow cards seems reasonable.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Despite Belgium's impressive attacking lineup on paper, they are struggling to find the net. Doku shows great pace but lacks the final pass. De Bruyne can provide assists, yet his overall performance has declined. This is somewhat true for Lukaku as well, especially in international fixtures. Consequently, Belgium have failed to score more than two goals in 7 of their last 8 matches. Thus, a bet on Belgium under 2.5 total goals appears well-founded.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Belgium have an advantage in corners this season (7.1 compared to 5.4). However, they can't dominate the entire match physically. At some point, Wales are likely to seize the initiative, particularly in the second half. The Dragons' swift wingers are capable of earning corners regularly. In this scenario, a potential bet could be Wales over 2.5 total corners.

Belgium are considered the favorites for the upcoming clash. However, Rudy Garcia's early matches have highlighted potential challenges in their quest for the 2026 World Cup qualification, especially in away fixtures. Although this match will be on home turf, it's one of those occasions where Belgium might drop points even at home. The determination of the Welsh, who haven't tasted defeat in a while, is noteworthy, making a potential scoreline of 1-1 a reasonable prediction.

Both sides are expected to create opportunities, with goals anticipated primarily from Belgium. Wales, however, are underestimated in this regard, having scored in nine consecutive World Cup qualifying matches. Meanwhile, Belgium have managed just one clean sheet in their last ten games. Therefore, a key betting option would be to back both teams to score (yes).