🔊 Can the Netherlands secure their first victory in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? Their trip to Helsinki is no walk in the park. While Finland may not be a powerhouse, they are a solid European side. Nevertheless, the visitors seem to have the edge, but we'll explore various scenarios to make an insightful prediction. It's worth noting that the match will take place at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams haven't faced each other in over a decade.

Finland Team Overview

⚪ Finland's national team put on a decent performance in the last qualifying cycle, finishing third in their group. They still had a shot at making it to Euro 2024 through the UEFA Nations League. However, they couldn't put up a fight against Wales in the first round. The "Eagles" had a poor showing in Division B of the latest UEFA Nations League, losing all their matches. As a result, they'll face lower-ranked opponents in the next edition.

🔗 At the start of the current tournament, Finland clearly aimed for six points. However, they struggled to secure a win over Malta (1-0) in a fairly balanced game. In the second round, they dropped points against Lithuania (2-2), despite leading by two goals in the first half and failing to close out the game effectively.

🔝 A key player in their attack is Joel Pohjanpalo, a natural-born striker. This season, he has scored 15 goals in 35 matches for Venezia and Palermo. He nearly helped the latter club secure promotion to Serie A. Pohjanpalo has also opened his scoring account in the current tournament, finding the net against Lithuania.

Netherlands Team Overview

🟠 The Netherlands national team have reached the semifinals of Euro 2024. Despite a challenging group stage, they managed to progress, leaving a mixed impression. However, the overall result is seen as positive, which is why Ronald Koeman remains at the helm.

🔗 The "Oranje" also faced difficulties in the UEFA Nations League, finishing second in their group. They secured only two wins out of six matches, falling significantly behind Germany. Nevertheless, the Netherlands advanced to the playoffs, where they put up a strong fight against Spain. Both legs ended in 2-2 draws. In extra time, the teams traded goals again, leading to a penalty shootout where luck was not on Koeman's side.

🔝 Xavi Simons is emerging as a leader for the Netherlands squad. This season, he has recorded 18 goal contributions in the Bundesliga for Leipzig (10 goals and 8 assists) over 25 matches. Despite his efforts, the team did not qualify for European competitions. Simons achieved the same number of points last season but over 32 matches. In the previous UEFA Nations League campaign, the midfielder scored twice, with one goal leveling the score in the second leg against Spain and helping take the match to penalties, where Simons also converted his spot-kick.

Latest news

Finland

🎙 Finland forward Robin Lod (Minnesota) believes his team can challenge the Netherlands: "Expectations are high. Of course, they are a strong opponent, one of the best teams in Europe right now. It's a great opportunity for us, and I have a lot of faith in our team."

❌ Roman Eremenko (Gnistan) returns to the national squad after nearly nine years away. He is one of the most experienced players, having earned 73 caps. The midfielder is included in the squad but is unlikely to feature in the upcoming matches due to injury. Nevertheless, no replacement has been called up. The squad also includes two newcomers: Matias Siltanen (Djurgården) and Tommi Jyry (Petrolul Ploiești).

Netherlands

❌ Bart Verbruggen, Jurrien Timber, Jerdy Schouten, Brian Brobbey, Matthijs de Ligt, and Joshua Zirkzee have been left out of the Netherlands squad for the upcoming matches. Also missing from the roster is Eredivisie's standout player this season, Sem Steijn (Twente), who boasts 24 goals and seven assists in 33 matches. Ronald Koeman commented on the decision to leave Steijn out: “Steijn has done well, scoring a lot. But it's not just about goals. This applies to others as well. We have a fixed group of players right now. What would it mean for them if Steijn was called up? He needs to keep working and prove himself at Feyenoord [having moved in the summer transfer window] next season. Yes, he's knocking on the national team's door, but he needs to kick it down.”

📝 Several Dutch national team players are set for big moves in the summer transfer window. Liverpool have already unveiled Jeremie Frimpong. Meanwhile, Tijani Reijnders is expected to join Manchester City soon.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Daniel Siebert from Germany. This season, he has officiated three international matches, each featuring at least five yellow cards. This aligns with his average across all competitions (4.86).

Finland tends to receive more yellow cards this season (1.5 compared to 1.4). On average, international matches see around three cautions. Considering the referee's statistics, it makes sense to bet on total yellow cards over 2.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The Netherlands squad is significantly stronger on paper. Goals are expected from them, especially since Finland allowed plenty of opportunities against Malta and Lithuania in their opening tournament matches. Given this scenario, it's highly likely that the visitors will score in the 1st half. Moreover, the "Oranje" have done so in 8 of their last 9 World Cup qualifying matches.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The Netherlands have the upper hand in corners (5.1 compared to 3.3). Their matches average nine corners, while Finland's games feature even fewer (8.6). In six consecutive matches under Koeman, the corner count hasn't exceeded the average mark. Therefore, we suggest opting for total corners under 9.5.

The Netherlands are undoubtedly the favorites in the upcoming match, boasting a diverse squad with no glaring weaknesses. While they might lack a standout striker, the team compensates well in other areas. Finland plays a straightforward style, so the "Oranje" are unlikely to face serious challenges, though a blowout is not expected either. We're predicting a potential final score of 0-2.

The visitors are likely to open the scoring sooner or later, making it easier as the Finns will start taking risks, allowing the fast wings more room for dangerous attacks. This gives the "Oranje" a strong chance for a confident win without a nervy finish. We suggest placing a key bet on a Netherlands win with a -1.5 handicap.