🔊 Who will claim the bronze in the UEFA Nations League? Germany are hosting the 'Final Four,' which initially positioned them as favorites. Additionally, the other three teams have already been champions. However, against expectations, the Germans will only be competing for third place in Stuttgart at the MHP Arena. They will face France, a team that under Didier Deschamps is always among the favorites in any tournament. Therefore, we will explore various scenarios to make an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over the last 11 head-to-head encounters, France hold the upper hand with six wins, three draws, and two losses. Their last official meeting was four years ago at Euro 2020. In the group stage, an own goal by Mats Hummels gave the "Les Bleus" a narrow 1-0 victory.

These matchups are typically not high-scoring affairs. In fact, the last five meetings have seen no more than three goals scored. This scenario seems suitable for teams needing to tighten up their defenses after the semifinals. Thus, a potential bet could be on total goals under 3.5.

Germany Team Overview

⚪ Germany have remained unbeaten in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League. They dropped points twice, settling for draws against the Netherlands (2-2) and Hungary (1-1). The result of the last match was inconsequential as the team had already secured the top spot in the group. In March, Germany kicked off their playoff campaign against Italy. Away from home, they managed a hard-fought victory (2-1), but on home turf, despite dominating play, they nearly let it slip away (3-3).

⚫ At Euro 2024, Germany were knocked out in the quarter-finals due to a controversial handball incident in Spain's penalty area. The referee did not award a penalty. The team had a chance for redemption but needed to get past Portugal in the UEFA Nations League semi-final. The Germans took the lead early in the second half. However, after that, they were unrecognizable. Following the goal, they failed to hit the target and completely ceded control to their opponents. It seemed like they were getting worse by the minute. Unsurprisingly, Portugal first equalized and then took the lead (1-2).

🔝 All eyes in Germany are on Florian Wirtz, who has hit the transfer market. Almost every top club is eager to sign him, though his price is steep. Liverpool are closest to sealing the deal. Over the last two seasons, he has delivered double-doubles in goals and assists in the Bundesliga for Bayer Leverkusen. The attacking midfielder also left a strong impression in the UEFA Nations League, with four goals and four assists in seven matches. Wirtz also made his mark in the semi-final against Portugal.

France Team Overview

🔵 France kicked off their UEFA Nations League campaign with a 3-1 defeat to Italy, their only loss. They also failed to overcome Israel in a goalless draw. Despite these setbacks, the team topped their group, edging out the Azzurri on tiebreakers. In the playoffs, Les Bleus narrowly advanced past Croatia. After a 2-0 away defeat, they mirrored the scoreline in Paris and prevailed in the penalty shootout.

🔴 At Euro 2024, France was also eliminated by Spain. The two sides met again in the same stage of the UEFA Nations League. This time, Didier Deschamps' squad lost by a narrow margin, 5-4. It could have been disastrous for them as La Furia Roja led by four goals by the 55th minute. However, France managed to claw back most of the deficit, which was a fair reflection of the performance both teams put on.

🔝 The standout star for the French national team is Kylian Mbappe. He has scored at least 27 goals in each of the last five league seasons. The forward made his La Liga debut for Real Madrid, netting 31 goals in 34 matches. Yet, the "Royal Club" ended the season without silverware. Recently, Mbappe's goalscoring for the national team has been sparse. For instance, in the current UEFA Nations League, he has only one goal from a penalty against Spain.

Latest news

Germany

🎙 Germany's head coach Julian Nagelsmann weighed in on their defeat to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League semi-final: "Today we lacked the intensity we've shown in recent months. This was one of our weakest performances in the past year and a half. After Wirtz's goal, we stopped playing. The scoreline reads 1-2, but it felt more like 0-3. We were a bit fatigued towards the end. In some positions, we didn't give 100 percent today. Now we all need to answer the question 'why'—every one of us, including the coaches."

📝 Joshua Kimmich marked his 100th appearance for Germany with an assist to Florian Wirtz and received the highest rating on his team (7.4). Notably, the last five headed goals Germany have scored came from Kimmich's crosses. The Bayern player made his debut for Die Mannschaft in 2016, and since then, 15 out of 30 headed goals have been from his assists.

❌ In the upcoming match, Jamal Musiala (Bayern) will miss out due to injury but will support the team from the stands. Yann Bisseck (Inter) sustained an injury in the Champions League final and has been replaced by Thilo Kehrer (Monaco), although Kehrer did not feature in the semi-final against Portugal. Ahead of the 'Final Four', Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz) and Nadiem Amiri (Mainz) withdrew from the squad.

France

🎙 France's head coach Didier Deschamps expressed his satisfaction with the performance against Spain: “This match was nothing like last year’s [1-2 in the Euro 2024 semifinals]. It's rare for any team to dominate possession and create so many chances against Spain. Their goalkeeper made several crucial saves. We also put on a good display. The facts speak for themselves… We face another tough challenge against Germany. We'll have less time to recover. Both teams will make substitutions. We'll try to recover and aim for victory.”

📉 France avoided a heavy defeat, but for the first time since March 12, 1969, they conceded five goals in a single match. Back then, it was a friendly against England, who were the reigning world champions at the time.

❌ The French squad will be without defenders like William Saliba, Jules Koundé, and Dayot Upamecano, who started against Croatia in March. All three are sidelined with injuries. This likely contributed to their defensive struggles against Spain.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Ivan Kruzliak from Slovakia. This season, he has refereed three international matches, each featuring at least four yellow cards. On average, Kruzliak issues 4.74 cautions per game.

Germany averages 2.1 yellow cards per match this season, while France sees slightly fewer at 1.9. Matches involving these teams typically feature more than four cautions. Both semifinals had no fewer than five bookings. Considering the referee's stats, a bet on total yellow cards over 4 might be worth considering.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Both teams frequently find the net in the second half. Germany, for instance, struggled after halftime against Portugal but still managed to score. In 7 of their last 8 home games, Germany scored in the second half. Similarly, France has scored in the second half in 9 of their last 10 away matches. This suggests that the second half of the upcoming clash could be high-scoring. Thus, a bet on total goals over 1.5 in the second half looks appealing.

🚩 Corner Prediction

This season, France averages 6.3 corners per game, slightly more than Germany's 5.7. Matches involving Germany typically see an average of 9.4 corners. In the semifinal against Portugal, there were only seven corners combined. Similarly, France's clash with Spain saw just 10 corners. Therefore, a bet on total corners under 10.5 seems reasonable.

Germany were considered favorites for the tournament they are hosting, yet they have displayed the weakest performance, particularly in attack, and their defense has lacked reliability as well. Do they have the resources to strengthen? Against France, it's doubtful. We might see a completely different French side. Thus, we propose a potential scoreline of 1-2.

France left a positive impression in their match against Spain, especially in attack, which we haven't seen from them in a while. With such play, they can pose significant challenges for the Germans, but their defense needs attention. Historically, Les Bleus have fared quite well against Die Mannschaft, so our key bet is – France will not lose.