🔊 Can Gibraltar avoid a heavy defeat in their third-round fixture of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? The outlook for them is bleak. The gulf in class between the teams is simply too vast. Croatia are considered the favorites in Group L. Competing for a World Cup spot along with them are Czech Republic and Montenegro, both of whom have yet to drop points. It's worth noting that the match will take place in Portugal at the Algarve Stadium. However, given its proximity to Gibraltar, they might feel somewhat at home.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams have not faced each other in official matches. However, a decade ago, they played a friendly where the "Checkered Ones" scored four unanswered goals.

Gibraltar Team Overview

🔴 Gibraltar have recently shown some progress. For instance, they went unbeaten in the UEFA Nations League D division, albeit against teams like San Marino and Liechtenstein. However, they couldn't secure promotion to a higher league. Following that, they managed a 1-1 draw in a friendly against Moldova, which is also a positive result for the team.

🔗 In the current tournament, Gibraltar are coached by Scott Wiseman. Under his guidance, the team put up a strong performance against Montenegro away. They even took the lead in the 13th minute. The opposition quickly equalized, but Gibraltar held the draw until the 70th minute. By then, their defense was visibly fatigued from constant pressure and numerous crosses into the box. Ultimately, they conceded twice towards the end (1-3). Their performance was notably weaker against the Czech Republic (0-4), lacking any counter-attacking play.

🔝 One of Gibraltar's standout players is Dan Bent (Lincoln Red Imps). He was the one who scored against Montenegro, marking his second goal in seven appearances for the national team. He's also been effective at club level, netting five goals in six matches this season.

Croatia Team Overview

🔵 Croatia have been medalists in the last two World Cups, so it's no surprise they are considered favorites in their group. However, the team faltered at Euro 2024, failing to advance past the group stage. Zlatko Dalić remains at the helm, having taken charge in 2017. We saw a different side of Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, where they confidently secured second place in their group, only behind Portugal. In March, the "Checkered Ones" pulled off a surprising playoff win against France (2-0). However, they fell by the same scoreline in Paris and eventually lost in a penalty shootout.

🔝 Despite a generational shift in the Croatian squad, the team's performance still heavily relies on its veterans. The 36-year-old Ivan Perišić continues to impress. This season, he unexpectedly became an Eredivisie champion with PSV. The Croatian has tallied 9 goals and 9 assists, with most contributions coming late in the season. Notably, Perišić scored seven goals in the last two months. In the first UEFA Nations League playoff match against France, he was the standout player, scoring and providing an assist.

Latest news

Gibraltar

❗ Scott Wiseman is a unique coach. Ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Julio Cesar Ribas stepped down for personal reasons. The task of preparing the team was entrusted to the coach of Gibraltar's women's national team. They put on an impressive performance against Montenegro, leading the federation to offer Wiseman a one-year contract. This means he is now juggling roles with both national teams while also overseeing football development in the tiny territory of Gibraltar.

Croatia

🎙 The 39-year-old Luka Modric has ended his tenure with Real Madrid. However, he's not planning to hang up his boots just yet and may make a move to AC Milan. Croatia's head coach Zlatko Dalic shared his future plans for the veteran: “We will all support Luka in whatever he decides to do next. Of course, I see him as the captain of the Croatian national team in the near future, right up to the World Cup, which I believe we can win together.”

🎤 Petar Sucic recently signed with Champions League finalists Inter and is eager to make his mark with the national team: “The first match in the new qualifying cycle is the toughest; we’ll have to break through Gibraltar's defense. It won't be easy, but we need to take them seriously. What would satisfy me? Minutes on the pitch and a victory. A 1-0 win is enough; the most important thing is the win. However, since goal difference counts in this qualifying cycle, we should aim to win by as large a margin as possible.”

✅ Croatia have no injury concerns. All key players are fit and available.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Georgi Kabakov from Bulgaria. This season, he has officiated two international matches, issuing three and six yellow cards respectively. However, across all competitions, he averages 5.33 yellow cards per game.

Gibraltar have the upper hand in yellow cards (3.7 compared to 2.4). On average, matches involving them see eight cautions, which is notably high. Yet, in the current qualifying cycle, there haven't been more than four yellows in a single game. Still, the hosts might reach their average, and the visitors rarely leave the pitch without a caution. Considering the referee's stats, betting on over 3.5 total yellow cards seems sensible.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Gibraltar are expected to play defensively, while Croatia will likely field an experimental lineup. It's important to rest the veterans after a grueling club season, especially with tougher opponents ahead. This scenario suggests a low-scoring affair. Moreover, in Gibraltar's last eight matches, no more than four goals were scored. The same goes for 15 of Croatia's last 16 games. Thus, betting on under 4.5 total goals appears well-founded.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Games involving these teams average fewer than 10 corners. However, Gibraltar's two matches in this tournament each featured 12 corners. Similarly, four of Croatia's encounters didn't dip below this mark. In this context, betting on over 10.5 total corners looks intriguing.

Croatia are the favorites heading into this match. The players have acknowledged the importance of starting with a win, regardless of the scoreline margin. Gibraltar will find it challenging to avoid a heavy defeat, yet a goal-fest is not expected either. Therefore, a potential exact score prediction is 0-3.

For a team that has medaled in the last two World Cups, conceding to Gibraltar would be a disappointment, so it's highly likely that the visitors will keep a clean sheet. They are unlikely to score more than four goals, making total goals under 4.5 a key bet recommendation. This has been the case in 15 of Zlatko Dalic's last 16 matches.