🔊 Is Paraguay the favorite for the upcoming clash? The race for the top three in South America is incredibly tight! Paraguay, gaining momentum and currently sitting fifth in the standings, will host third-place Uruguay at Defensores del Chaco in Asunción. Despite their position, Uruguay have struggled to secure wins since last summer. What kind of scenario can we expect from this encounter, and what predictions can we offer?

Head-to-Head

📊 In their last 15 head-to-head encounters, Paraguay have claimed victory twice, Uruguay have won eight times, and the teams have drawn on five occasions. In the first-round match at the "Centenario," neither side managed to find the back of the net, resulting in a 0-0 draw.

Paraguay Team Overview

🔴 Gustavo Alfaro's side have a solid chance of reaching the World Cup for the first time since 2010. After 14 rounds, the team sits in fifth place with 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses. Paraguay have amassed 21 points, the same as third-placed Uruguay. Therefore, a home victory would see the Paraguayans surpass Marcelo Bielsa's team.

⚪ Paraguay have played two matches this calendar year—first defeating Chile (1-0) and then drawing with Colombia (2-2). The winning goal against Chile was scored by Omar Alderete. Against Colombia, Junior Alonso and Julio Enciso found the net. The current form of the "Guaraní" includes an 8-match unbeaten streak—4 wins and 4 draws—indicating that Uruguay will face a tough challenge in Asunción.

Uruguay Team Overview

🔵 Marcelo Bielsa's squad currently sits in third place with 21 points, having secured five wins, drawn six times, and suffered three losses. La Celeste trail second-placed Ecuador by just two points, so a win for Uruguay and a loss for Ecuador against Brazil would see them climb to second. The competition remains fierce, with only a single point separating them from sixth-placed Colombia. Therefore, securing three points in this match is crucial for the Charrúas.

⚫ During the spring qualifiers, Uruguay played two matches without scoring a single goal. They first lost at home to Argentina (0-1) and then played out a goalless draw away against Bolivia. In their last eight World Cup 2026 qualifiers, the team has managed just one victory, alongside five draws and two defeats.

Latest news

Paraguay

🔝 Torino and national team striker Antonio Sanabria is the team's top scorer in the current qualifying campaign, having netted 4 goals.

🎙 Sanabria commented on the upcoming game: “The team feels very good and is eagerly anticipating Thursday's match. We know it is crucial for us, and I believe we are preparing in the best possible way. It will be a key match—at home and with our fans—but we understand it won't be easy. Uruguay have excellent players, and they're coming here seeking the same result as we are, so we need to stay very focused.”

❌ There are injury concerns for center-backs Fabian Balbuena and Omar Alderete—their participation in the match remains uncertain.

Uruguay

🔝 Darwin Núñez stands as the main threat for La Celeste. The forward has accumulated 7 points in the goal+assist system: five goals and two assists. It's also worth highlighting midfielder Nicolás De La Cruz, who boasts three goals and three assists.

🎙 Central midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur stated ahead of the match: “I want to win a title with my national team. But let's not get ahead of ourselves and focus first on the matches against Paraguay and Venezuela, then we'll see.”

❌ Goalkeeper Sergio Rochet will miss the match due to a broken arm. The participation of defender Sebastián Cáceres, midfielders Federico Valverde and Nicolás De La Cruz, as well as forward Federico Viñas, is in doubt.

⚽ Goal Prediction

⚽ Goal Prediction

In the current qualifiers, Paraguay have netted 11 goals over 14 matches, averaging just 0.8 goals per game — the third-lowest among all national teams. However, they have conceded only 9 goals, which ranks them third-best defensively, with an average of 0.6 goals against per game.

Uruguay have scored 17 goals and conceded 10 throughout the tournament, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded per match.

Considering the head-to-head history between these teams and their current stats, we anticipate a low-scoring affair. Therefore, we recommend betting on under 2.5 total goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The "Guaraní" average 3.6 corners per game, while the "Charrúas" reach 4.5. In their first-round encounter, Uruguay dominated this aspect with an 8-0 corner advantage.

Although the game might be low on goals and could end without a winner, the scenario looks different for set pieces from the corner flag. Hence, we suggest considering a bet on Uruguay to win on corners with a handicap of (+1).

Considering the head-to-head history between these teams, the match is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Surprisingly, the odds for Uruguay to win are quite high. Given Paraguay's successful run and the advantage of playing at home, they are seen as favorites against the backdrop of Uruguay's inconsistent form and the potential absence of key players. However, the strength of Uruguay's squad remains significant, making a bet on Uruguay not to lose a well-founded prediction considering both the odds and the likely outcome. The predicted score is 1-1.