🔊 What will Carlo Ancelotti's debut as the new head coach of Brazil look like? Can Ecuador avenge their first-round defeat and hold on to second place? This match raises many questions. Let's attempt to find some answers through analysis and our own predictions.

Head-to-Head

📊 In 13 matches, the "Pentacampeões" hold a clear advantage with eight victories compared to just one for their opponents. The remaining four encounters ended in draws. In the first round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Brazil secured a narrow win at "Couto Pereira" in Curitiba, thanks to a goal from Rodrygo (1-0).

Ecuador Team Overview

🔵 Under the guidance of Sebastián Beccacece, Ecuador's national team are delivering impressive performances, sitting second in the standings with 23 points. Over 14 matches, they've secured 7 wins, 5 draws, and suffered only 2 losses.

🟡 Since that defeat to Brazil, "La Tricolor" have remained unbeaten in seven matches, entering the rematch on a streak of four wins and three draws. This calendar year, in the qualifiers, Ecuador have played two matches: they claimed victory over Venezuela thanks to a brace from veteran Enner Valencia (2-1), and then drew with Chile (0-0). Ecuador's defense deserves special mention, having conceded just 5 goals in 14 matches— the best record among all tournament participants.

Brazil Team Overview

🟡 "Seleção" currently hold the 4th position after 14 qualifying matches. Brazil have secured 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses. With 21 points in their tally, a victory over Ecuador would allow the "Pentacampeões" to surpass their rivals in the standings.

🟢 This calendar year, the "Yellow and Green" have played two matches in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. On home turf, Brazil defeated Colombia with goals from Raphinha (from a penalty) and Vinicius (2-1). However, they suffered a crushing defeat against Argentina in their next match, losing 4-1. The sole goal for Brazil in that game was scored by Matheus Cunha.

Latest news

Ecuador

🔝 A significant contribution to the team's success comes from forward Enner Valencia, who has racked up 7 points in the goal+assist system (5 goals and 2 assists).

👨‍⚖️ It's worth recalling that the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) docked Ecuador three points in the qualifiers due to the use of a fraudulent document containing false information about Byron Castillo for the 2022 World Cup.

🎙 Head coach Sebastián Beccacece addressed the upcoming match in a pre-match press conference: “I've heard that we've already qualified. That's not true. And also – that Brazil are weakened. Brazil are not weakened. They have five World Cups, a coach who has won five Champions Leagues, and the best players in the world. Let's be respectful.”

❌ Ecuador face significant personnel issues. The participation of winger Gonzalo Plata (knee injury), as well as forwards Leonardo Campana (strain) and Enner Valencia (hamstring issues), is in doubt.

Brazil

🔝 Currently, the most prolific player for the national team is Barcelona's attacking winger Raphinha, who has tallied 7 points in the goal+assist system (5 goals and 2 assists).

👨‍⚖️ FIFA has informed the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) of the need to investigate a potential breach of regulations concerning football agents in the hiring of Carlo Ancelotti as head coach of Brazil's men's national team. The issue involves a €1.2 million commission for agent Diego Fernandez, as reported by Ge.Globo. A FIFA executive has expressed doubts about Diego Fernandez's role, who has been closely accompanying Ancelotti, even up to his arrival in Brazil for his official presentation at the CBF.

🎙 Ahead of his debut on the Brazilian bench, Carlo Ancelotti stated: “My Brazil will play similarly to Real Madrid, but not like this year, more like last year. I understand that the playing system depends on the players' abilities. It's crucial to create a comfortable environment for them on the field. I don't want my team to have just one identity and style. I'm here to make the Seleção world champions again. And I am convinced that we can achieve this.”

❌ Due to intense competition and injuries, Ancelotti has been unable to call up players such as Ederson, Éder Militão, Gabriel Magalhães, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus, and many others. Also left out of the squad are Evanilson, Caio Henrique, Paixão, Neymar, and a number of other potential candidates for the national team.

⚽ Goal Predictions

⚽ Goal Predictions

We've already highlighted the defensive prowess of the Ecuadorian side, who concede an average of just 0.3 goals per match. However, their attacking output is quite modest, with only 13 goals scored across 14 games, averaging 0.9 goals per game (less than one goal per match).

Despite their position in the standings, statistics reveal that Beccacece's team tends to play low-scoring games. Ecuador are disciplined and organized, so it's unlikely they'll engage in an open attacking style from the first whistle against Brazil.

With this in mind, we suggest considering the bet: Ecuador not to score in the 1st half.

🚩 Corner Predictions

From the last eight matches played by both teams in this tournament, it's evident that each averages five corners per game. Applying basic math and probability principles, one might expect around 10 corners in the upcoming match.

However, in their head-to-head clash during the first round in Brazil, both teams combined for just six corners. Therefore, for those interested in such bets, a more cautious yet potentially rewarding option might be to consider total corners over 7.5.