🔊 Who will secure a spot in the UEFA Nations League final? With the European club season barely concluded, national teams are taking center stage. On June 4th, at the Allianz Arena, the home side Germany will face Portugal. Bookmakers clearly favor Germany as the frontrunner, but our editorial team aims to analyze whether the first semifinal is as straightforward as it seems. We present a detailed prediction for your consideration.

Head-to-Head

📊 Germany and Portugal haven't crossed paths in quite some time—since Euro 2020, which was held a year later due to the pandemic. They faced off in the group stage, delivering a goal-fest that ended in favor of the Germans (4-2). However, the standout performers of the match were indeed the Portuguese: Cristiano Ronaldo and Diogo Jota both recorded a goal and an assist, while Ruben Dias and Raphael Guerreiro scored own goals.

Germany Team Overview

⚪ Germany delivered an impressive performance in the group stage of the Nations League, comfortably securing the top spot in a group with the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia. The "Eagles" remained unbeaten, dropping points only in away matches against Hungary (1-1) and the Netherlands (2-2). With 18 goals scored, they became the most prolific team in League A. The Germans also shone brightly in the quarterfinals, though it wasn't without its tense moments. By halftime of the second leg against Italy, Julian Nagelsmann's side led with an aggregate score of 5-1, but faltered in the second half, conceding three unanswered goals. It felt like the Italians simply ran out of time to complete their comeback.

🔝 Throughout the current Nations League campaign, right-back Joshua Kimmich has showcased remarkable productivity. The Bayern Munich player has tallied 2 goals and 5 assists. Equally impressive are the standout talents of this generation—namely, Florian Wirtz (3 goals, 3 assists) and Jamal Musiala (3 goals, 3 assists).

Portugal Team Overview

🔴 The Portuguese squad also navigated their group without much difficulty, finishing with the same 14 points as the Germans. They only dropped points on the road against Croatia (1-1) and Scotland (0-0). However, Roberto Martinez's side didn't reach the semifinals without a blemish. In the first leg of the quarterfinals, they were outplayed by Denmark (0-1), narrowly escaping with just one goal conceded. They had to turn things around on home soil, which was no easy task. By the 86th minute, Portugal were on the brink of elimination, but Francisco Trincão scored a crucial equalizer and then netted the winner in extra time. Gonçalo Ramos capped it off (5-2).

🔝 Despite controversies and dissatisfaction, Cristiano Ronaldo continues to be called up to the national team and remains a vital part of it. The Portuguese captain is the top scorer in the elite division of the Nations League with six goals. We must also highlight Nuno Mendes, who has provided five assists. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that the PSG player is currently the best left-back in the world.

Latest news

Germany

🎙 Julian Nagelsmann: "If we play at our best, we can beat Portugal. That's our goal. But we can't drop a meter below the level we showed in the best moments of the quarterfinal against Italy because I consider Portugal to be a very strong team. We'll do everything possible to reach the final in Munich."

❌ It's worth noting that Germany's top scorer in the current tournament, Tim Kleindienst, is not included in the squad for the 'Final Four'. The Borussia Mönchengladbach forward is injured and will return to the field only next season. Additionally, defender Yann Bisseck will not join the national team after sustaining an injury in the Champions League final.

Portugal

🎙 "I'm focused on the upcoming World Cup. That's what we're working towards. We continue to strive for improvement and team growth. Everything else is just noise, but our focus remains on the World Cup. We're exactly where we want to be—among the top four teams in Europe. Of course, we want to win the Nations League, but we also aim to use it as preparation for the World Cup," said Portugal's national team coach Roberto Martinez.

📝 There have been rumors that Jose Mourinho might replace the Spaniard as head coach, but a source within the Portuguese Football Federation has denied these claims. According to them, the organization has not contacted Mourinho or anyone else.

✅ As for the visiting squad, it can be considered optimal. All the top players are included in the lineup. Most of them come from European giants, some from the 'big Portuguese three', and of course, there are representatives from the Saudi Pro League—namely Cristiano Ronaldo and Ruben Neves.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by a team of referees led by Slavko Vincic. The Slovenian has overseen three matches in this season's Nations League and hasn't held back on the yellow cards, averaging 5 per game. Under his watch, Portugal defeated Denmark 5-2, and Germany edged out the Netherlands 1-0. Vincic issued 6 cautions in each of those encounters.

Continuing on the topic of yellow cards, the teams' averages are nearly identical: Germany at 2 and Portugal at 1.9. However, the Germans tend to provoke more fouls from their opponents, leading to a higher overall number of cautions in their matches (4.4 compared to 3.6).

Based on the statistics above, we recommend betting on over 3.5 yellow cards. The referee is generous with his bookings, and given that this is a semifinal, expect plenty of competitive play.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

Both national teams rank among the top three most prolific in this Nations League campaign: Germany with 23 goals and Portugal with 18. Considering the attacking talent set to grace the pitch in Munich, a low-scoring affair seems unlikely. Therefore, we suggest betting on over 2.5 goals, a bet that has hit in 3 of Germany's last 4 home matches, often with room to spare.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Given our expectation of an exciting, attacking match, it's reasonable to anticipate a high number of corners. The statistics back this up: Germany averages 5.3 corners per game, while Portugal averages an even higher 7.1. Additionally, there are strong trends to consider. For instance, the over 9.5 corners bet has cashed in 15 of Portugal's last 16 Nations League matches. We'll stick with this option.

Both teams enjoy controlling possession, but on home turf, the Germans won't let their opponents dominate the territory, and the Portuguese won't push for it either. This scenario actually benefits Roberto Martinez's side with their fast attacking line-up. We anticipate that the visitors might pose some challenges to the "Bundesteam" and could find the net, but we can't bet against Germany here. From a tactical standpoint, Julian Nagelsmann's protégés are stronger, and the support from the stands will be a crucial factor in their favor. After considering various betting options, we suggest the main bet to be Germany's individual total over 1.5 goals. The "Eagles" have surpassed this mark in six of their last seven home matches and are likely to do so again. Given all this, a final score of 3-1 seems most probable.