🔊 Can Italy secure their first victory in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? At least the bookmakers' odds suggest so. However, the national team has had a sluggish start to the tournament, significantly reducing their chances of finishing atop Group I. Moldova, on the other hand, was initially viewed as an underdog in their quintet. Nonetheless, it's unlikely they'll come to Reggio Emilia as mere tourists. Therefore, we'll explore different scenarios to make an insightful prediction. It's worth noting that the match will take place at the Stadio Città del Tricolore.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams haven't faced each other in an official match for nearly 20 years.

Italy Team Overview

🔵 The Italian national team is going through a rough patch. Never before has their squad been in such dire need of star power. Luciano Spalletti, who longed to manage the national side, is at the helm. However, at Euro 2024, they barely made it to the playoffs and were knocked out by Switzerland in the first round. They fared much better in the UEFA Nations League, finishing second in their group, only behind France on tiebreakers. In the playoffs, Italy faced Germany but narrowly lost over two legs (1-2, 3-3).

🟢 Due to their involvement in the UEFA Nations League, Italy began their World Cup qualifying campaign only in June. They faced their main rival for a spot at the tournament—Norway. The odds in Oslo were fairly even. However, the Scandinavians dominated the visitors, leading by three goals at halftime. After the break, the game settled down, and Italy failed to seize control or create significant chances in the second half. Ultimately, they suffered a shocking defeat (0-3).

🔝 While Italy lacks big stars, a few players still stand out. For instance, Sandro Tonali, who has returned from a betting-related suspension this season. He significantly contributed to Newcastle's fifth-place finish in the Premier League and their qualification for the Champions League. However, Tonali's personal stats aren't particularly impressive—four goals and two assists. Despite interest from top clubs, Tonali has expressed his desire to stay at Newcastle.

Moldova Team Overview

🟡 Moldova have put in a decent performance in the Euro 2024 qualifiers. It's worth noting that they trailed the group leader by just five points and were narrowly behind Poland. However, the team finished fourth in their group. Positive momentum can also be seen in the UEFA Nations League. Yes, Moldova lost to Malta, but they secured first place in their group with victories in the other matches, earning promotion to League C.

🔴 At the start of the current qualifying cycle, the team have yet to earn any points. In the first round, they couldn't counter Norway, conceding five unanswered goals. Following that, an early red card hindered them against Estonia (2-3). At one point, both teams had equal numbers on the pitch, but by then, the opponent was already two goals ahead. Moldova kicked off this gathering with a friendly against Poland (0-2). Despite not losing out in terms of possession, they failed to create enough chances to score.

🔝 Moldova's national team has a player to watch in Ion Nicolaescu, who leads their attack. The forward plays in the Eredivisie for Heerenveen and has netted nine goals, four more than last season. In the KNVB Cup, Nicolaescu has scored three goals in three matches. In the current qualifying cycle, he found the back of the net against Estonia.

Latest news

Italy

🎙 Italy's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, who lifted the Champions League trophy with PSG just a week ago, shared his thoughts on the defeat to Norway: “I’m at a loss for words. We need to improve our game – our fans don’t deserve this. We have to look within, tackle this together. We must find the strength because we are Italy.”

🎙 Luciano Spalletti hinted at a possible resignation following the thrashing by Norway: “This isn’t who we are. Individually, we are capable of much more, but it's clear we are in a challenging period. This is the squad I selected. I need to speak with president Gabriele Gravina about their intentions, about their perspective on the decision I’m considering.”

❌ During the current camp, Luciano Spalletti cannot count on Matteo Gabbia and Moise Kean due to injuries, both of whom would have had a great chance to start. Meanwhile, Francesco Acerbi declined the national team call-up citing disrespect. Spalletti commented on the situation: “One day, Acerbi will explain where he felt disrespected by me. In turn, I will share my view – on what his respect for me was like and, most importantly, for the Italy team.”

Moldova

🎙 The head coach of Moldova's national team shared his thoughts on the team's performance in the friendly match against Poland: “Poland deserved the victory; they played better than us and scored two goals. At 1-0, we had our chances to equalize, but that's football — if you don't score, your opponent will. I preferred our performance in the second half.”

❌ Out of all the players called up for the June camp, only Artur Craciun is unavailable. The head coach commented on his situation: “I wouldn't say his injury is very serious, but we couldn't get him ready in time for the game against Poland. After speaking with our doctor, it became clear that he won't be ready for the match against Italy either.”

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Urs Schnyder from Switzerland. This season, he has officiated two international matches, each featuring at least five yellow cards. Notably, in the Montenegro vs Turkey game, he issued 11 cautions. Across all competitions, Schnyder averages 4.86 yellow cards per match.

Moldova tends to receive more yellow cards this season, averaging 2.8 compared to their opponents' 1.7. Matches involving Moldova see an average of 5.8 cautions. We anticipate the Italians will come out with intensity, which could also lead to disciplinary action from the referee. Given his track record, we suggest betting on over 4.5 total yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The match against Norway highlighted Italy's significant attacking issues. The hosts will likely struggle against the visitors' low block. Goals from Moldova seem unlikely, and Italy probably won't score many either. Therefore, betting on under 4.5 total goals appears reasonable. This bet has been successful in 13 of Italy’s last 15 home games.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Italy failed to score against Norway and barely threatened the goal, earning only two corners. Spalletti's side averages 4.4 corners per game this season, which isn't much. Italy is expected to respond after the defeat to Norway and likely won't allow Moldova many opportunities near their goal. Therefore, two corners for the visitors seems like the maximum. Meanwhile, Italy doubling their average corner count is also unlikely. In this scenario, betting on under 10.5 total corners seems sensible.

Italy are the favorites for the upcoming match. Spalletti is likely to make significant changes to the lineup following the setback in Oslo. Many players fell short of expectations, so reserves, who are nearly on par in quality, should get their chance. Thus, a confident win for the hosts is expected, but not by a large margin—perhaps a 2-0 scoreline.

The last time Italy won by more than three goals was in November 2023 against Malta, with the final goal scored in stoppage time. Moldova are stronger than Malta, and Italy's attack isn't as formidable right now. Therefore, our key bet is a win for the visitors with a (+3.5) handicap.